Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.013927 0.015751 0.017725 0.020021 0.022619 0.025466 0.028827
2025-10-26 0.010881 0.013351 0.016250 0.019905 0.024393 0.029730 0.036568
2025-11-02 0.009225 0.011969 0.015373 0.019908 0.025800 0.033210 0.043257
2025-11-09 0.007914 0.010748 0.014424 0.019551 0.026527 0.035711 0.048757
2025-11-16 0.007122 0.010063 0.014031 0.019787 0.027941 0.039114 0.055643
2025-11-23 0.006360 0.009309 0.013431 0.019623 0.028718 0.041632 0.061446
2025-11-30 0.005914 0.008941 0.013310 0.020090 0.030383 0.045484 0.069443
2025-12-07 0.005250 0.008177 0.012527 0.019480 0.030362 0.046818 0.073742
2025-12-14 0.004758 0.007619 0.011990 0.019175 0.030743 0.048737 0.079045
2025-12-21 0.004276 0.007028 0.011343 0.018624 0.030664 0.049898 0.083187
2025-12-28 0.004105 0.006918 0.011440 0.019263 0.032540 0.054298 0.092958
2026-01-04 0.003905 0.006740 0.011406 0.019674 0.034053 0.058201 0.102194
2026-01-11 0.003728 0.006590 0.011414 0.020171 0.035778 0.062639 0.112823
2026-01-18 0.003460 0.006259 0.011086 0.020054 0.036424 0.065272 0.120497
2026-01-25 0.003239 0.005991 0.010841 0.020057 0.037268 0.068300 0.129117
2026-02-01 0.002986 0.005640 0.010420 0.019697 0.037409 0.070049 0.135476
2026-02-08 0.002840 0.005478 0.010326 0.019935 0.038678 0.073965 0.146275
2026-02-15 0.002654 0.005222 0.010036 0.019770 0.039154 0.076409 0.154387
2026-02-22 0.002563 0.005142 0.010072 0.020241 0.040904 0.081431 0.168049
2026-03-01 0.002351 0.004805 0.009584 0.019626 0.040432 0.082030 0.172723
2026-03-08 0.002192 0.004562 0.009261 0.019318 0.040551 0.083811 0.179980
2026-03-15 0.002020 0.004279 0.008835 0.018763 0.040109 0.084399 0.184733
2026-03-22 0.001982 0.004273 0.008976 0.019408 0.042253 0.090534 0.202004